Expert horse race selections and exclusive sectionals and reviews from New Zealand

Expert horse race selections and exclusive sectionals and reviews from New Zealand

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Pointers to backing Graphic and A Touch Of Ruby Print

Last Saturday, the winners of the two big races at Trentham, Graphic and A Touch Of Ruby, had never started in Open company before. Both had won their last start in R85 company. So what pointers were there that either could have jumped so much in class and win?

Let's take A Touch Of Ruby first. Last start at Pukekohe Park, she was a dominant winner in very fast time over 1300 metres. In fact her time if 1.15.20 was the fastest recorded there since 2000 courtesy of www.trackwork.co.nz. Her official time was 1.15.58, but I haven't agreed with any official times there for a while now. One subscriber noted that from the review and made some good money off her just based on that one bit of information. She beat a couple of handy horses in Cartell and Beyond Desire but was getting 2.5 and 3kgs off them, so you couldn't back her on what she beat. But she is in foal and on occasions we see that mares can improve greatly when in that state. I've read a few theories about why they can improve but the most logical seems to be progesterone, a mild anabolic hormone which helps build their muscle, condition and their appetite. Plus it also makes them feel good.Minnaleo, also in foal, ran second at $19.30 in the fourth race at Trentham. Stephen Autridge, trainer of A Touch Of Ruby, was fined $500 for not notifying stewards that she was in foal.

Graphic won the Dunstan Feeds final beating horses that had won up to four races, and the tempo favoured on pace runners, so you couldn't back him with confidence well up in class in a Group 2 race, based on the how that race was run, the time or what he beat. But the two factors he did have in his favour was his ability to race on the pace and his obvious will to win with four wins from his previous five starts going into the cup. Plus, the Moroney and Ormsby training partnership get their horses fit and they stay fit. If you felt he would get a softish run on the pace again, then you had to be confident he would be a good chance to at least be in the placings. As it turned out, it was a race that suited runners in the first half dozen. They only averaged 12.75 second per 200m sectionals to the 600m mark, which allowed them to come home off the front in 34.52, the fastest of any race all day on the course proper. So Graphic, ticking along in the fourth place with cover, was in the perfect position to take advantage of that. After he led just after the 200m mark, he put his head down and was too strong for leader Skysoblue. Guns At Five, under the circumstances did very well to get up for third from eighth outer , running his last 600m in 33.96 closing hard on the line. So it was a race that certainly favoured anything on the pace that was good enough to take advantage of it.

Trying to work out if last start winning horses can win again jumping in class is a very difficult thing to do as you have to weigh up the strength of that win, and the strength of the field it is up against, plus other factors like the distance, track conditions and any weight advantage it may be getting. It's a challenge many punters enjoy and when you nail one, it is very rewarding.

 
A roughie to include in your Triple Trio Print

Cup Day- It is one of the best days of racing all year and has drawn some very good horses. The Triple Trio looks a tough one again and I've given my thoughts on the best banker for each race and where to go narrow. There's a million dollars up for grabs again so it's worth a small go and with luck, you never know. There is bound to be a big priced horse filling a place in one of the legs, and one in the Cup could be 14.Tempelten. He is the type of horse that is best idling along at the back of the field and if they go hard enough, which is likely here, he can really unleash a powerful last 600 metres as he showed at Thames. He's paying $31 and $7 with bookies.

Virtual Punter will be on at Trentham and it is free to enter. $25 goes to the person who accumulates the biggest total.

 
Trentham track highlights need for definite policy Print

Firstly, I won't be running a Triple Trio syndicate this Saturday. It looks a very tough one to get and will very likely jackpot.

The track is currently a Dead 5 and with fine sunny weather forecast it will be interesting to see what happens to the track over the next few days. It has certainly been a hot topic and I've had a few discussions about last Saturday's track conditions. It was interesting to see that the two horses that raced on the Saturday and then backed up on Monday, won ( The Governator ) and ran second ( Sworntoperfection). It would also be worth knowing just how many horses did jar up after Saturday's racing. Personally, I prefer to watch horses race on Good 2 or better tracks, not Good 3 to Dead 4 ones. Once horses have the confidence to stretch out on them, they are generally happier to continue to do so. Crikey, we get Dead and worse tracks around 75% of the year, so having a decent firm track would be much more interesting to watch races on. Wouldn't it be great if the top dozen or so trainers could get together with the main track managers and try and agree on a definite policy, but there is probably more chance of one of us getting $10 worth of the Triple Trio on Saturday than that happening.

I'll be keeping subscribers informed about the track anyway. A better day at the races today with four winners on top at Te Rapa after a dismal display over the long weekend. I'll be doing my best to better that at Rotorua on Friday.

 
A bit of a skaky bet Print

I had often looked at the public stand at Trentham racecourse and thought that would be the last building I would want to be caught in if an earthquake struck. Yesterday, just after watching Peacefulleasyfeelin win well in the sixth race on course, I decided to put a bet on the seventh race before heading home and wondered down to the ground floor of the public stand. Just as I was putting the bet on, the building started to rock and roll and the guy on the tote looked at me, gave me the ticket and I was out of there. It was later announced outside that the building was earthquake compliant but I wasn't going to hang around to see if that was the case!

Later on, most of you would have seen Mark Rosanowski on Trackside attempting to call the dog race with his monitor crashing to the ground in the background. I thought he kept his cool pretty well.

Peacefuleasyfeelin is a very promising stayer and won that race easily and can go on with it. But if there was one horse I could have walked home with to put in the backyard, it would have been Tainui, which looked good going to the line in the first race.

Tomorrow we have the races at Te Rapa which has drawn some handy horses. In the second race, maybe the Formpro Ratings can help us pinpoint the winner. Kendoka raced in the Dunstan Feeds Final last start which year after year, proves to be a reliable place to find future winners. Already, Jagersfontein has won out of it after finishing eighth, 3.8 lengths from the winner. Kendoka finished just alongside him in tenth place. She rated 104 in the Formpro Ratings, which was a career best for her. With the 54.5kgs she is carrying and back in class here, she only has to rate 102 to win this, so we know she can do that. Do other factors indicate she can win it? She has drawn well and with a few runners likely to look to be on the pace, she should be able to relax nicely and settle about 6th or 7th. With an even tempo likely she should get every chance to come at them over the last 100 metres and with Matt Cameron on board, she will know what she is there to do.

I may run a Triple Trio syndicate for this Saturday, which I will post on Wednesday night if I do. I have posted the reviews from the weekend with horses worth following, including a horse paying over $100 for the Derby.

 
What can we learn from the first Triple Trio? Print

The first Triple Trio has been and gone, so what can we learn from it. The first thing is to not put your bet on two early, especially if you are taking bankers. With Cauthen and a couple of others being late scratched in the three legs, and then having to go on substitutes, you need to put it on as late as possible if you can. Track biases and change in track conditions are other reasons to wait.

The key runners to boost the Triple Trio were Roc de Chine and Jaggard. Roc de Chine wasn't too hard to find as he was second equal rated in the Formpro Ratings and mapped to get a good run from a top stable. She had a definite 'Yes' in my preview. But Jaggard had a definite 'No' in the Telegraph as I thought at least 5 other runners that would be near the pace were better horses. So how could you justify including him? He won fresh up at Otaki and was fresh here again, plus he mapped to get a cosy run on the pace which didn't look to be strong. So like most punting, it always seems simpler after the race has been run doesn't it. But we have learnt a few things from the first one, including how much you need to outlay on certain combinations. Another million up for grabs this Saturday.

After I walked the track late Friday, it was a Good 2 in most places. So when that sun came out with the wind later Saturday morning, it dried out quickly to a fast track. After walking parts of the track this morning ( Sunday) where the sun is out and a strong drying wind is blowing, it will take plenty of water going on to get it to a Dead 4 right round the track by tomorrow morning. The sprinklers were going round the top bend and by the winning post. The front straight had been watered out to the centre before hand. Monday's forecast is for more sun with an 18km wind, so hopefully a Good 2 to Good 3 track.

I need to find a couple of good winners for tomorrow to make up for Saturday's poor performance. I have found two that look very good bets, but I'll be previewing all races there and post it by 8.45 a.m.

 
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