Some nice value winners from out of the ratings today. Kiama had the second highest rating behind 24 start maidener Te Horo Bling. She won paying $15. In race 7, Christine Rankin was the third best rated runner on a heavy track and clearly the best rated runner on the unique Trentham heavy filter. With the 4kg allowance, she was excellent value at $21.

The advantage with the ratings is that a horse may have finished 7^th or 8^th and be ignored by most punters next start, but if that run was just 2 lengths from the winner, it would rate quite well next start. You will find this happens often, especially on Dead or better tracks. On wet tracks the margins are nearly always bigger. So over the next 6 months, you will be able to find many such value runners.

I have previewed some of the races tomorrow for subscribers here. With 3 meetings in the country I will be previewing the three quaddies and only races where I feel we have at least average confidence in picking the winner.

Burgundy bolts away at Taupo today. He looks the one to beat in the 2000 Guineas.

Burgundy was very impressive winning at Taupo today. He relaxes nicely and drops to $4 for the 2000 Guineas. He’s a very impressive looking 3 year old and there is nothing at this stage that I can see beating him. It should make the decision easier for the connections of Anabandana to start in the 1000 Guineas.

I’ve had a few questions about the ratings so I thought it would be best to answer them here as many others are probably thinking the same thing.

Why was Burgundy rated 94 in the ‘Pred’ ( Predicted Rating ) in the Market Maker today and his rated price $11.80?

When he won his maiden race I rated it on 96.4 which is one of the highest ratings a maiden can get. It took into account the race time, sectionals splits and the margin he won by. I have to rate a horse on what he actually does, not on what he can potentially do. But you can add on a bonus rating yourself for what you think he will reach based on what you have seen. I personally put him on 100 as I feel he will reach that at least in his next two starts. The Predicted rating dropped to 94 as he was carrying 3.5kgs over the bottom weighted runner.

Which races do you think I should concentrate on when trying to work out three or four good bets per week? Find races where most runners have had at least two starts into their campaign in R80 races or better. That way you are not guessing how forward horses are or how much their fresh up run has taken out of them.

How much do you allow for beaten margins? I allow 1 point per half length or two points per length. I experimented with many formulas but found this to be the most accurate.

If you have any questions about the ratings, please email me at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it or text me on 027 3526402.

I’ll look at how the ‘Formpro Ratings’ page can help you find winners. This page is very good if you want to sort the information quickly. If you hover your mouse over the black triangles, then it will show you what that column does. If you click on the triangle, it sorts them in order for you. For example, the R1 column sorts them in order of the last race rating. So you can quickly see which horses are going the best. A quick glance in the R2 column, its rating two starts back, and you can see if it is improving or maybe tapering off if it has had a few starts in the campaign. In the last race at Taupo today, Viking Ace which had the equal second best last rating won paying $13.  If you want to sort them by best record over the race distance +/- 101m then just click on the D1 triangle. To sort them by best performance on the track to be raced on, click the T1 triangle. The F-D columns sorts them in order of the best performed on a Fast to Dead track. The S-H column sorts them on Slow to Heavy track runs.  The B1 column sorts them by the best rated runners in their last four starts. The B2 column by the best rated runners since April 1^st 2010. The ‘ADJ’ columns sorts them by finding each runners best run at their last four starts and deducting a weight allowance for the amount carried over the minimum weight carried for the current race.

Let’s look at Trentham tomorrow to see how we can use the Formpro Ratings‘ page to find a winner.

The track is a heavy 10 as at Thursday afternoon and unlikely to improve much from there. In race 5 if you click on the best performed runners on a Slow to heavy track ( S-H ) then 1.Belfast Lad 110, 2.Rising Tide 106 , and 5.Blackmandu 105 rate well clear of the rest. They are also the top three rated horses over the distance as well so look the three. Of the three I would give the nod to 2.Rising Tide as he won strongly here on a heavy 11 track over 1600m and has won over a middle distance.

In race 9 I want to find the best recent ratings of all runners so I clicked on the R1 triangle and 12.Our Centrefold 100, 10.Lucky We Leica 98, 4.Tidal Wave 96 and 5.Micken 95 are the top four by a gap.  Our Centrefold looks well placed at the weights so looks the one.

Don’t forget you can click on any horses name and find out all of its ratings.

Good luck

Neil

Yesterday I outlined how you could accurately go through each runner and predict what rating the horse might run using the Market Maker. Acquit was second top rated after weight adjustments and won well in a truly run race. Earlier in the day, my bet of the day, Postmaster, bolted in and he was clearly the top rated runner. The Market Maker also identified the second and third horses in the right order for a $37 trifecta.  That does take time and most punters haven’t got that luxury. So the next best thing, and this was David, my site designer’s excellent idea, is to use the Race Filter. You can find the best runners according the race distance plus or minus 100, 200 or 400m. Track conditions or from Fast to Dead or Slow to Heavy which is very useful. Plus you can go back 30 days, 90 days, 180 days or 1 year. You can also filter out the flat races if the race is a hurdles or steeples race as well plus runs on the current track only or in a certain direction. When you hit the submit button, it comes up with the best rated runs according to what filters you have set.

In the second race at Gore today, setting the filter to race distance +/- 200m  and Fast to Dead only for the track conditions and Our Bee Jay with 103.6 and Petty Lane 102.6 were clearly the two best performed runners and that’s the order they finished in with daylight to third. The quinella paid $9.80. In the next race, Postmaster rated clearly on top with 94.8 and bolted in. Second rated Welshtown ran second to make a $2.80 quinella.

In maiden races, I tend to set the filters as All distances and track ratings, then work out which ones I can discount from there. For example, if the top rated runner’s rating was on a heavy track and today they are racing on a Dead track, I’d consider leaving it out.

Let’s do a couple of races from Taupo tomorrow.

In race 5 we have an R70 field racing over 1800m on a currently Dead track. If you set the filter at +/- 200m that would catch all runs from 1600m to 2000m. The track is a Dead 6 so it could be Slow track tomorrow with showers about tonight so I will leave the Track conditions as ‘All Track Ratings’. The adte range will go back for the last year only. The top five in order are: 2.Straight Furrow 98.8, 4.Lydian Prince 97.9, 8.Superlative 97.7 and 1.Pactus 96.5 and 3.Polarity 95.4.  They are quite closely rated so it is an open race. It is the first leg of the quaddie so the only one I would leave out of those five is 4.Lydian Prince as he needs a few runs to get ready to win. Polarity is the interesting runner. He rated 95.5 wining here last start. He looks a progressive type. Horses can normally improve around 5 rating points when winning in the next class. I would add 3 points to his rating here if I were doing a Market Maker assessment which puts him on 98.5.

On to race 7 which is an R70 race over 1200m. With the same filters we used in race 5, the top five are: 3.Guru Girl 99.8, 1.Anita Pea 96.6, 2.Sunshine Park 96.1, 14.Ten Belles 96.0 and 5.Panthera 95.4. Guru Girl’s is clearly top rated on 99.8 by 3.2 points. She won her trial very nicely against better horses and looks a solid eachway chance. If you are a trebles or quaddie punter, using the Race Filter is a very effective quick way of sorting out the best chances in the race.

I have decided to do race 4 at Gore, using the ratings form www.formproratings.co.nz  as there is more exposed recent form. Login with username: formpro, Password: ratings and is free till October 18th.

I will use the Market Maker page as I can click on each horse and all of its ratings will come up. From there I will analyze each runner’s ratings and predict what I think they will be capable of achieving based on a Dead track over this 2000m distance. I will take into account all relevant form factors.

Summary:

The best rated runners in order after the weight carried is taken into account are: 5.Margretta 1.Acquit, and 4.Heza Kool Kat.

To make your market this is what you do if you have the time:

For example, Acquit I rated on 102. The B1 column rating, which is the best of its last four ratings i.e. R1, R2, R3 and R4, was 102. The Predicted Rating ( Pred Column) is the B1 figure less an allowance for the weight it is carrying over the minimum which in this case is 96. As my predicted rating is the same as the B1 column, I don’t change the Pred column figure, but I do with the next runner.

Onto Vive La Danske. I predicted his rating as 94 above, but his B1 figure is 103 and the Predicted (Pred) rating of 99, which has already taken into account the weight over the minimum needs to have 9 points deducted (103-94 ) so 90 goes in the Pred box.

Little Boss: my Predicted rating of 93 above, is 3 below his B1 rating of 96 so deduct 3 from his ‘Pred’ Rating of 92 to get 89.

Heza Kool Kat goes up 1 from 94 so 95 goes in the pred box.

Margretta stays the same on 99 as I predicted a 99 and the B1 column is already 99.

etc

Continue doing the rest until they are all done then click the ‘Submit button’ and you should get the same prices as I got above. Remember, that market is to 100% and the bookies will be around 130%. So if any runners are paying more than their rated price below, it is a good value bet.

Tomorrow I will analyze a race at Taupo for Thursday using the Race Filter page as it is quick and easy to find the main chances.

It is a bit tricky doing your first few but once you have the hang of it, and have the time, it can really be time well spent as you know you have found the best chances and if the value is there, long term you have an excellent chance of making long term profits.