There was some good feedback from last week’s list of winners we could have backed with the benefit of hindsight so I’ve detailed a few from Saturday. You can apply the same lessons to horses that lose but unless we are constantly aware of what form factors point us towards winners, we can lose our focus.
Ruby Lips beat some good horses at Ellerslie over the same distance on a similar surface two starts back.She didn’t stay the 2100m in a tougher field last start and looked as though she would lead or sit outside it and with no midrace pressure likely, was going to be hard to beat.
Lessons: Keep tabs on strong form races. You can easily do this by using the Formpro Ratings page. Beside each rating figure alongside a horse there is a smaller number indicating the number of races won by horses out of the race. In her case ‘4’ showed beside her rating of 100 at Ellerslie. If you hover your mouse over the rating figure it also tells you the Date, Track, Conditions Distance, finishing position and the margin. You can see what the winners were out of the race by clicking through on the horses name, then the date of the win, then click on ‘View Form from this race’. Doing a speed map of the race proved very worthwhile as Clareen mapped to get the trail and formed the $7.70 quinella and $27.60 trifecta with the Spinmyworld.
Azincourt rated 106 and 108 3 and 4 starts back and with the 3kg allowance only had to rate around 104 to win this. Had no favours last start and the Slow track suited him better than most.
Lessons: When the ratings tell us they have rated well in better fields, and they get a good weight allowance, it is worth noting. 3kg allowances on Slow and heavy tracks become more of an advantage than on better surfaces.
Villifye rated 111 at Ellerslie coming round the lot of them in a similar strength field. She had a 46 day break before her previous start so looked ready to at least match or improve that 111 rating. Drew wide which was the place to be this time of day. Lessons: Watch for horses rating well then having a freshen up and improving with that run. Top trainers set them up nicely for big races.
Sweet Suitor won well fresh then backed up 3 days later for a close second. 2kg allowance helped and third up would have been spot on. Back to 1200m suited as well. Lessons: Horses third up in a campaign are always worth noting. 2kg allowance on a slow to heavy track always a plus.
Keith’s Legacy rated 106 on a slow track in a strong form race back in December and only had to improve a length to win this. He was caught 3 and 4 wide fresh up and had won and run second second up before and a slow track was ideal. Lessons: The Ratings showed that he could win. Second up form was very strong with a win and a second to remove any doubt that he may be flat after a fresh up run.
There’s a nice eachway bet in the first race tomorrow.
5.Minnaleo won strongly three back at Wanganui over 1600m rating 95 then ran on strongly in a handy field at New Plymouth where Storm Rider finished just in front of her and he won impressively last week. She rated 95 in that race. Then last start at Hastings she sat 4th outer off a slow pace and went round them and battled in the slow ground. That was her first run over ground and she is should be improved by that run. She is out of a Grosvenor mare and Mike Breslin will have her ready to produce her best back on a Good surface.