Expert horse race selections and exclusive sectionals and reviews from New Zealand

Expert horse race selections and exclusive sectionals and reviews from New Zealand

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Sports Pools syndicate closes tonight Print

If you follow the NRL and rugby then you can have a good financial interest by investing in the Pools. It costs $1 per bet and it should get to around $85,000. It is very difficult to strike without percentage betting but if you join our Sports Pool syndicate for $10 or more, you will have a much better chance of striking it. All you have to do is deposit a minimujm of $10 into a specified TAB account, then The Money Shot works out one main bet and maybe a saver if funds allow, and I place the bet on Friday. I post the selections we have in the first couple of games, so other syndicates can't copy our bet and maybe diminish our return, then about 9 p.m. post the full bet. We have struck a few good sized pools with excellent payouts and gone very close in few others. Those of you who have been in them before will never forget that quick dropkick that was taken to convert that try for the Aussies that almost knocked us out but then managed to score a try in the last few seconds to ensure a big payout. The Gold Coast Titans let us down when hot favourites to win in another syndicate. One thing is for sure, you get a great ride for your money. If we collect, I pay out on a pro-rata basis into your TAB account by Tuesday afternoon. We have $2,000 in the kitty so far and it closes at midnight tonight here- no late entries. If there are it will be refunded next week.

The Box Speed Rating rating at Addington today had an amazing strike rate with the 'Red Ink' or fastest proven dog to the first bend. David has detailed the results here.

It looked a tricky day at Hastings today and I was only confident about one horse winning, Our Entourage in race 2. Unfortunately he missed the jump and ran on okay, but that's racing. I have been going through the form for Taranaki and Ruakaka for Saturday and there look to be some nice bets there. I've also been through all the harness fields for tomorrow night and I just can't find anything that I can select with confidence so no selections or bet for the Pick 6 syndicate. I may have a go at the $200,000 New Plymouth Pick 6 though. Luke's preview of Stage 17 is here and he has found a couple of good value bets.

 
Stage 16 preview Print

Tour 2012 – Stage 16

by Luke Radich


It’s all gone so quickly. Only five stages to go ... two mountainous, one lumpy, one time trial and the final flat run in to Paris.

Tonight’s stage is extremely tough and will only be won by the breakaway if there is a particularly strong climber in it from a team that has nothing to ride for other than stage wins. This draws me towards the Movistar team, which has had a pretty wretched Tour. Rui Costa ($40) and Juan Jose Cobo ($22) are the best possibilities and both are at backable prices. Valverde, from the same team, is also at $22 but I am not confident his form is good enough. Rein Taaramae ($50) of Cofidis is a good climber who is at a fair price. He also looks to be getting stronger as the Tour goes along.

The likelihood (say, 65% chance, so no certainty) is that it will be won by one of the GC contenders. This is made a little easier to work out because the stage finishes with a 15.5km descent and clearly the best two descenders of the GC contenders are Nibali ($5) and Evans ($8). I prefer Nibali slightly but they are both a little shorter than I would like, even though they deserve to be the favourites. Evans has the better finishing kick, so if he is with Nibali over the last climb I would expect him to hang with Nibali on the descent and outkick him at the finish. Nibali has looked a little stronger, however, so if he can put even five seconds over Evans over the last climb then Cadel probably won’t pull him back.

I therefore recommend Nibali, Cobo, Costa and Taaramae.

The other interesting aspect of tonight’s stage is that it will probably decide the King of the Mountains competition. These are the current leaders, along with their point totals and prices:

  • Fredrik Kessiakoff – 69 points, $2.40.
  • Pierre Rolland – 55 points, $3.
  • Chris Anker Sorenson – 39 points, $9.
  • Thomas Voeckler – 37 points, $11.
  • Michele Scarponi – 33 points, $25.
  • Chris Froome – 32 points, $13.
  • Thibaut Pinot – 32 points, $20.

Tonight the first two climbs are Hors Categorie (the toughest type) with big points available for the first riders over the top (points are for first ten riders, going 25, 20, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2). Therefore anyone who wants to win the KOTM can get into the breakaway and potentially grab 50 points. Kessiakoff should try to do this, effectively treating tonight’s as one of 120km, rather than 197km. If he can, then he can all but wrap up the KOTM competition two-thirds of the way through the stage and soft pedal to the finish, not worrying about how much time he loses. The advantage for him is that half of his rivals listed above would not be let go in a breakaway:

  • Pierre Rolland is a little too high on the GC;
  • Likewise Chris Froome, obviously;
  • Thibaut Pinot is a quite close second in the young rider competition (Teejay Van Gaardaren leading) and therefore BMC would not let him go in the break.

This means Kessiakoff’s buffer is actually more significant than it might look. Even if he isn’t the first one over the first two climbs he will almost secure the competition just by being in the lead group.

I think he is very backable at $2.40 and could well be paying $1.10 by tomorrow. Television coverage starts at 9pm tonight, taking in the whole stage, so we will get to see all the early flurries as the breakaway tries to form in the first 35km before they hit the first of four mountains.

 
How to win a Punters Challenge Print

By nature, most punters are very competitive. After all, when we have a punt, we are backing our opinion ahead of others who we think are wrong. That's why punters challenges are normally well attended, especially when there are good cash prizes up for grabs. I've entered a handful and been in contention in one of them but have never finished in front.

A couple of years ago I interviewed the winner of many of them, Gino from Wellington. He won them by sorting out runners that were paying $10 or more and using his pre-race behaviour skills to sort out the ones that looked ready to win, or discounting the ones that looked likely to lose. This Saturday they hold their annual punters competition, and I'll be attending it and doing my best to break out of the maiden ranks. So I thought it would be good to find out from a previous winner  and how she went about winning it. Yvette from Auckland, won it in 2009, by turning her $600 into just on $5,000. "Having the printout of all the fields with their last fifteen  or so starts is vital, plus any other website information you can get your hands on. Being able to talk to trainers at the very sociable pre-match function on Friday night, really does help as well. Many of us are able to walk the straight on the Friday afternoon so we can get a feel for how it may play."

" You can usually win it with anything between $3,000 and $5,000. I've been runner-up twice before when leading into the last race. I always try to sort out one or two good priced runners that I focus most of my betting on. When I won, right from the day the fields came out, I was very keen on Lunus winning. Having walked the track I was convinced he would get an advantage on the inside going sitting in the trail. I decided to put $400 win on him paying $10 so it was the right price. But I had that nagging doubt you get backing a good priced runner against the hot favourite, which was The Brown Bomber. I said to the teller, "$400 a win on number 6 Lunus."

 She said, Are you sure? I replied,  "No, but do it anyway! "

"He ended up trailing to the turn then he and The Brown Bomber fought out a head to head battle with Lunus holding him out by about a head. So with just over $4,000 in the kitty, I was well in front so played it cool till the last race where I backed Sparking to win, which he did by about eight lengths, to end up with just on $5,000, which won it. The additional $5,000 first prize allowed me to go home with $10,000 which I did enjoy spending on a few goodies over the next couple of weeks! I'll be there again but tell your readers that they will be fighting over second and third!."

This is the first year that you don't have to spend at least $60 of your $600 on each race. As long as you spend all of your $600 on any of the races held there, you can still win the $3,000 first prize. Refreshments and lunch are on the house. If you would like more information about the competition then contact the club at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it or phone 06 757 5759. See you there.

 
Dog improvements, Sports pools and juggling Print

For the Greyhound Ratings followers, David has added a few design changes, as well as red ink for the Box Speed which is highlights the proven fastest dog to the first bend and by clicking on the recently added sort arrow, sorts them into fastest to slowest in a nano second. You may notice an improved response time for bringing up the ratings as well. David's expertise is greatly appreciated in developing the ratings and we have some excellent additions coming up over the next few months. Please email me at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it with any feedback about the Formpro Ratings as it can often lead to some very worthwhile additions or changes.

It was tough going at Te Aroha today. Some were struggling to finish, let alone win! I spent most of the day analysing the harness replays over the last few days and was only able to come up with two horses that, if well placed next start, will be worth backing. Having the sectionals readily available makes the form so much easier to work out. I've had a couple of queries about when I post the harness selections. There are various options. They are posted anywhere from 8.30 a.m. to 9.30 a.m. on Fridays, I could just post them at 10 a.m. but that may mean others can get on if it is paying good overs and you may miss out on a better price. So the only way to do it is by posting soon after the bookies odds are opened, so that is what I will continue to do.

The Money Shot feels it is a good time to swoop on the Pools jackpot as it is likely to reach $85,000 this weekend. It is ideal for a syndicate as the bet unit is $1 with no percentage betting. You can enter for $10 or more - click here to enter ( login required)

If you want to see the latest biggest bets with the bookies as they occur, then logon to these tweet sites:  https://twitter.com/HuntRacing for gallops bets   https://twitter.com/RichardsonNZ  and harness bets and other info.

And if you want to have a few good laughs then download this app for free from Face Juggler

 
Why do you subscribe? Print

I occasionally wonder why people subscribe to my service. Most of you just don't have the time to do the study and analyse the replays so login for that reason. Some like to do your own research on the quaddies or a few other races and like to compare my reasoning with your own to see if they may have missed one or reinforce their own ideas. Others like to use the Formpro Ratings to help them sort out the form. The number of hits on the that site is increasing every week, which doesn't really surprise me, as readers learn the value of them. Recently, during midweek meetings, I have only been posting runners I put money on myself and based on the feedback, most of you appreciate that. This time of year, is especially hard to make money. The dilemma I have is what do I post on Saturdays, so any feedback is appreciated. Take yesterday for example, I wrote this in my preview:

'It is a tricky day of punting with a puggy heavy  track at Trentham. Ruakaka has some even fields.'

I would have just liked to have posted my three main bets and the quaddie previews, but I know many of you like a full preview. If there is one thing I have emphasized since I began this site in 2006, there are only around a handful of races per week worth  serious consideration and investing on. Take the last seven days for example. Out of the four days of meetings I previewed, there were eight bets or value of the day and a speed map special and four of them won. They were Baggare at $2.10, Free Will which paid $3.50 but was available for quite a while after I posted the selections at $6.50 with bookies, Skirmish $5.50 and Quick Turn at $4.20. That is a 44% strike rate and a level stakes profit of just over 100% which I am more than satisfied about. It is probably the toughest month of the year to make a profit. The previous week we would have made a loss but the week before that, an excellent profit was made. I haven't got a clue how we will go over the next seven days, but one thing is for sure, I will only be posting well researched selections as bets or value bets of the day, if I will be backing them myself. 

If you subscribe to my site hoping that I will select around 50% or more of the winners on top week after week, there would be more chance of me riding the next Melbourne Cup winner then weighing in light than doing that! But, if we are selective with the races we bet on, we give ourselves a realistic chance of winning long term, and that is how you have to think if you want to make money long term. One punter I was speaking to yesterday, very wisely puts a proportion of his weekly betting allowance aside for the Spring racing so he is going to have a tidy sum to really enjoy that fantastic few weeks of racing. There will be quality horses going round on better surfaces which makes it so much easier and enjoyable to work the form out.

This week we have races at Te Aroha tomorrow, Tauranga Wednesday, Hastings on Thursday, then a break on Friday followed by New Plymouth and Ruakaka again. The dual harness meetings on Friday at Addington and Auckland should hopefully provide another one or two good value bets.

 
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