Below are some of the reasons you could have backed some of the winners.
Rock Express $6 peaking fourth up after one good run over a middle diostance in a stronger field. Had the best last start Formpro Rating and rated equal first after weight adjustments.
Mi Apache Horse $2.80 two good races from wide draws when working early. Drew inside and made all the difference. Rated equal best last start Formpro Rating.
Mels Evie $7.40 dropped in class ( 1st and 2nd horse had since won) and back to a more suitable distance. Rated equal first after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings.
Texas Yellow Rose $3 blinkers went on and trialled in them before that and looked full of running. Last start Formpro Rating was first equal.
All In Clover won this week last year at the track over the distance. Slight freshener. Rated equal first in the Formpro Ratings after weight adjustments.
It's a Message $10.30 ran on well fresh up over 1600m on a Good track. Up to a more suitable distance and had the best Formpro Rating over the distance by 9 lengths!
Nothing Trivial $2.80 had won fresh up on debut and drew the rails.
Lanzara drew the rail and strong form around good horses last campaign. Rated equal first after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings.
Frank Whittaker $6 dropped back from R75 class after a better run than it looked after getting blocked late when finishing stylishly. Drew wide to get away from being under horses. Best last start Formpro Rating.
Table One $5 had a million starts but last start ran a good third to a subsequent winner and had the best last start Formpro Rating.
So common threads were horses dropping back in class, racing over a more suitable distance, a horse winning at the same time last year and rating first in a category of the Formpro Ratings. There were other reasons but they were the main ones.
So how can we apply these principles at Awapuni tomorrow? In the third race we have Hot Lips dropping back from a $25,000 R75 class race where she ran on well for fourth, to this midweek $8,000 R65 race. She rated 99 in the Formpro Ratings which was a career best for her, and that was the best last start Formpro Rating in this field. She just needs to rate 97 to win this with 54.5kgs and Matt Cameron stays with her. The track should improve to a Dead 6 which should be fine. So she has some strong pointers to her winning chances.
I'll be posting a full preview of the meeting by 8.45 a.m. Friday morning. We were able to get a nice value bet up at the Auckland trots last Friday when Master Charlie ( $4 FF into $2.80 ) led all the way with an aggressive drive from Brent Mangos. They will be posted by noon Friday along with an early preview of Ellerslie and an update at 6.00 p.m. along with speed maps. Can they beat Tiger in the Masters? It is hard to see it. He knows the course so well and is in great form. When he gets that game face on, the rest shudder.
Rory has played it four times for finishing positions of 20th,69th,15th and 40th. Tiger has played it 18 times for 4 wins and only finished further back than 15th four times. So the $1.50 on Tiger in the head to head looks a good bet for your multi of the week.