Expert horse race selections and exclusive sectionals and reviews from New Zealand

Expert horse race selections and exclusive sectionals and reviews from New Zealand

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Marksman hits the bullseye in Round 1 Print

Our new Sports tipster, Marksman, was a bit cautious about recommending any bets for the first round of the NRL, but he needn't have worried as both his recommendations got up. The Bronco's, with a points start, got in comfortably. The only sure team he thought could win, The Cowboys, left their run till late, but did it well in the end with the quick thinking Thurston really being the difference. The recommended multi returned around $23.70 for every $10 bet, which was a nice return for a tricky first Round. He's been busy analysing the games and stats and is confident he can go back to back in the second round. His long term team to win the Final at $20 mentioned last week, the Panthers, won very strongly and look in for a good season. He may recommend other value teams in the next few weeks to win the final. His selections for the weekend will be posted Friday at 5.00 p.m.

The Bank bets were looking good to produce a good profit on Saturday but Sweet Idea was flat turning in. Interestingly, she drifted markedly close to start time. And Vibrant missed the start and over raced after that. But only 1 unit was lost for the week with a few winners, so little damage done. There look to be some excellent bets this weekend, depending on the weather. Last week, many got on the Speed Map Special, Catkins, on the Friday 5.00 p.m. early post at $2.60 with our bookies which was the best price in Australasia at the time. She won easily and closed in to $1.70. The early Saturday preview is getting a record number of hits, so I'll be posting a few updates on Friday as I go through the form. I was going to post a Bank bet on Tuesday night but changed my mind. Subscribers will learn why in my first early Saturday preview on Thursday at 6.00 p.m. Today's Bank bet, Attention Seeker was asked to do too much in front and did well to hang on for fourth. According to the official last 600m of 37.14, she ran the first 600m in 33.40!

The Money Back Specials are proving popular with punters. Quite a few got up at Ellerslie on Saturday. It is on trial to the end of the month, so go easy on those bookies eh, as they might can the bet type!

 
Kiwi horse sneaks over to Wyong Print

Interesting to see impressive Otaki winner, High Tec, is racing at Wyong later today in the last race at 7.40 p.m. Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young have taken over his training. He did look good improving at each of his three starts here and a Dead to slow track won't bother him. $1.70 is a bit short but he does look well placed in that field. Maybe a small multi with Set To Skelter $1.80 in the last race at Geelong which won very impressively last start sitting 3 wide and still won nicely at Moonee Valley, could boost the return a bit. Drawn the ace with Damien Oliver on, could mean they get a soft lead and be very hard to run down.

I'll be posting a full preview of the Otaki races by 8.45 a.m. tomorrow morning.

 
Introducing Marksman, our new sports selector Print

 

marksman

This week, subscribers will have the added bonus of having weekly NRL selections from our new sports selector, Marksman. He played the game for many years and since retiring from it, has followed the game very closely. What amazes me with him, he knows nearly every player and what their strengths and weaknesses are, which gives him a real feel for which teams have an advanatge. He has put a lot of time into analysing each team for this season and has detailed an early value bet to win the Grand final at double figure odds here for subscribers. But after speaking to him today, he strongly suggests punters keep their powder pretty dry for the first round. He has a couple of good bets sorted out that will form a nice multi for a small outlay which he will send through by Friday night 6.00 p.m.

He knows he has big shoes to fill following on from the Money Shot but he will be doing his very best for us.

Who Shot Thebarman was a gutsy winner of the Cup today. Celtic Prince loomed as though he was going to do it, but that breeding and the Oulaghan fitness factor kicked in. Matt Cameron drove him home to a terrific win.

I'll be previewing some of the dog races at the Auckland Dogs Cup meeting tomorrow night and will post that by 8.45 Thursday morning along with any 'Bank' bets. Full marks to the bookies too for having all the odds out for all races there tomorrow. It gives punters time to work out where the value is and has to increase turnover. Wouldn't it be great to have the odds up for every meeting the day before!

 
A good value bet for the Auckland Cup Print

Just a reminder that the Pick 6 syndicate closes tonight here. We have just over $3,000 in the pool so far.

Is Who Shot Thebarman value at $2.40? He did win impressively here last start and his breeding suggests he will stay the 3200m no trouble. Drawn well and has Matt Cameron on. It is hard to find a negative for him. But it is an 18 horse field and you wouldn't want to be on at a shorter price than that. The one I feel looks very nicely placed in this is 4.Annie Higgins. She kept up a grinding finish to win the Counties Cup. Then she has had four runs over 2400m finding the line well in three of them and was off a slowish pace in the Wellington Cup. She was held up here last start and found the line nicely once clear. The 3200m looks ideal for her and she is rock hard fit and has had a trouble free preparation this campaign. She gets in on 53kgs, the lightest she has been this campaign. Will likely just slot behind midfield and look to track into it and is a solid eachway chance to run these down at nice double figure odds.

Tomorrow, I'll be introducing you to our new Sports selector, who specialises in Rugby League and will be giving us his opinion on any good bets for the first round of play on Thursday night.

 
Pick 6 and how strong was Puccini's win? Print

Firstly, I am running a Pick 6 syndicate on the Wednesday Cup meeting at Auckland. Apologies for the short notice but you have until Tuesday night to join in. You need to have a login to join in and you can deposit a minimum of $10. We ran one last year on Cup day when it was $100,000 and we struck it and came very close to scoring the lot if one horse had poked it's nose in front.

What an amazing Derby it turned out to be. I had a an email from a subscriber questioning my sanity after I mentioned on Radio Trackside that Puccini was no good thing to lead from that barrier. But he missed the jump by half a length and just didn't have the speed to drive through and lead. Not that it really mattered though. I was trying to work out if he beat a below average field and was made to look good or was it a genuine top effort. The sectionals and times have sorted that out. He ran 2.28.39 which was around 6 lengths off the fastest times run in the race. But when you compare it to the R75 and Open handicap middle distance races on the day, which is nearly always a reliable guide, it tells us that it was an above average effort. The tempo was almost identical to the R75 race yet Puccini came home in 35.99 seconds and the R75 race came home on 36.79. Plus he had to work wide and get on the pace for about 500 metres before he hit the 600 metre mark. When compared to the Open handicap they went at a slower tempo but were only able to come home 4 lengths quicker from the 600 metre mark. The speed rating for the race was the fastest of the day over all distances as well. He relaxes and just keeps going when asked! So, look out Australia, he 's coming to get the fatter parts of your stakemoney.

It also makes Rising Romance's run look very good, as she was only able to get going 600 metres out and got that bump sideways after turning, but ran home very strongly. It looks like she is going to Sydney too, so hopefully they both come through the runs well and do us proud. For the Formpro Ratings, I rated his win 111.8. The last three winners rated: Habibi 110.2, Silent Achiever 110.8, and Jimmy Choux 111.0.

In case you aren't aware, there is a free login to the Formpro Ratings till Thursday night with username: formpro Password: remote

A good guide to find out which dog form factors are doing well at each track, is to go to the 'Metrics' under the heading of Greyhounds. For example, at Palmerston North Dogs today, the metric tells us that the 'Best Last 6' has a 30% win strike rate and has returned $351.10 from 348 races, which is a very strong fact. So how did they do today? From 12 races, 7 dogs won, so it does seem to be a strong factor to take into account. Compare that to the Box Speed Factor, which only has 21%, so when doing the form there, make sure you give more emphasis to the 'Best' form factor at that track.

The Formpro Bank bets made a loss of close to 6 units, which is no disaster. If I could have the last three days over again, I would have waited to see what the weather was going to do at Sydney. It rained heavily before the race, and he just didn't handle it. I wouldn't change the other two bets. Ultraviolet lost a winning chance when she was tightened out of the trail soon after the start. If she had secured that trail , she would have won. And Rising Romance put in a big run for second and maybe could have won under different circumstances, but that's racing. We saved on Puccini so all was not lost.

 
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