A tricky day of betting at Avondale today with rain lurking but not unleashing. The track remained Dead and just as well as there would have been many scratchings otherwise. Bet of the day, Living The Dream, led all the way to win easily but I didn't agree the official time of 1.09.89. The horse mentioned in yesterday's Winning Pointers' was Darci's Gold which was going for three fresh up wins in a row. The trial told us she was ready and she was set up for the punt. The rain stayed away long enough for her to handle the ground and dropped from $5.50 to $3.40 on the tote late but paid around $4.50 with bookies, so it could well have been Australian money coming late.

Great to see Adam Scott win the Masters this morning with Steve Williams on the bag for his third individual Masters win. What an amazing tournament that is.

Tomorrow, at Wanganui, we have a Dead 6 track and rain forecast throughout the day. It is a track that tends to favour horses with a proven record there, especially when it gets to slow or heavy. So I asked the Formpro Ratings, using the Race Filter, to tell us which runners in the sixth race, the R75 event, that had the best ratings on a slow to heavy track there over the last year plus or minus 400 metres. On top is Gus with 103, then Mrs Mac on 99 then Ishdanzin on 96.8. So make sure you include them in your quaddies. I'll be posting a full preview of the meeting by 8.45 a.m. tomorrow morning.

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Free login to this site and the Formpro Ratings site till this Thursday night 9.00 p.m.

Login to this site with username: formpro and password: backpack to get all the selections for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, plus the sectional reviews of which horses to follow out of them. Plus all the reviews back to March 2010.

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Winning Pointers from Awapuni and Ellerslie

Wiggle $4.70  ran a strong last 600m time second up off a decent tempo. Improved 4 rating points in the Formpro ratings, which equals four lengths, from its fresh up run to its second up run, which is always a good pointer when third up.

No Enemy $13.40 had the blinkers go on and rated on top after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings

Lasswade $7.20  close second last start and fifth horse, lady Shannon, won next up. Had the best rating on the track and on a Fast to Dead track.

Miss Centrefold $6.80 had all won four of her races on this track and had the best ratings over the distance and track in the Formpro Ratings.

Exabelle $6.60  last start was wide with cover in a sit and sprint and did well for a 2.7L 6th. Matt Cameron top rider a plus.

O'Fille $3.00 the set weights suited her and the step to 2000m. Had the best last start Formpro Rating.

Payette $4.20 won fresh up last two campaigns.

So Wotif $3 won in fast time last start and rated on top after weight adjustments.

Needlly $9.80 put in a big effort last start.

Handsome Mates had won and run second, second up in his last two campaigns.

So there were many pointers that indicated a win was on the cards. The interesting one to me is the fresh up and second up patterns. Of course, horses don't always follow previous patterns but if you are aware of them and you feel the horse is well placed to repeat that pattern, then you can find those winners a bit more frequently. There is a horse racing tomorrow at Avondale tomorrow that has an interesting pattern that I shall reveal tomorrow morning after bookies have posted their odds at about 8.45 a.m.

Below are some of the reasons you could have backed some of the winners.

Taranaki Monday

Rock Express $6 peaking fourth up after one good run over a middle diostance in a stronger field. Had the best last start Formpro Rating and rated equal first after weight adjustments.

Mi Apache Horse $2.80 two good races from wide draws when working early. Drew inside and made all the difference. Rated equal best last start Formpro Rating.

Mels Evie $7.40 dropped in class ( 1st and 2nd horse had since won) and back to a more suitable distance. Rated equal first after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings.

Texas Yellow Rose $3  blinkers went on and trialled in them before that and looked full of running. Last start Formpro Rating was first equal.

All In Clover won this week last year at the track over the distance. Slight freshener. Rated equal first in the Formpro Ratings after weight adjustments.

Paeroa Wednesday

It's a Message $10.30 ran on well fresh up over 1600m on a Good track. Up to a more suitable distance and had the best Formpro Rating over the distance by 9 lengths!

Nothing Trivial $2.80 had won fresh up on debut and drew the rails.

Lanzara drew the rail and strong form around good horses last campaign. Rated equal first after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings.

Frank Whittaker $6 dropped back from R75 class after a better run than it looked after getting blocked late when finishing stylishly. Drew wide to get away from being under horses. Best last start Formpro Rating.

Table One $5 had a million starts but last start ran a good third to a subsequent winner and had the best last start Formpro Rating.

So common threads were horses dropping back in class, racing over a more suitable distance, a horse winning at the same time last year and rating first in a category of the Formpro Ratings. There were other reasons but they were the main ones.

So how can we apply these principles at Awapuni tomorrow? In the third race we have Hot Lips dropping back from a $25,000 R75 class race where she ran on well for fourth, to this midweek $8,000 R65 race. She rated 99 in the Formpro Ratings which was a career best for her, and that was the best last start Formpro Rating in this field. She just needs to rate 97 to win this with 54.5kgs and Matt Cameron stays with her. The track should improve to a Dead 6 which should be fine. So she has some strong pointers to her winning chances.

I'll be posting a full preview of the meeting by 8.45 a.m. Friday morning. We were able to get a nice value bet up at the Auckland trots last Friday when Master Charlie ( $4 FF into $2.80 ) led all the way with an aggressive drive from Brent Mangos. They will be posted by noon Friday along with an early preview of Ellerslie and an update at 6.00 p.m. along with speed maps. Can they beat Tiger in the Masters? It is hard to see it. He knows the course so well and is in great form. When he gets that game face on, the rest shudder.

Rory has played it four times for finishing positions of 20th,69th,15th and 40th. Tiger has played it 18 times for 4 wins and only finished further back than 15th four times. So the $1.50 on Tiger in the head to head looks a good bet for your multi of the week.

Let's look at the points that could have led us to back some of the winners on Saturday and see what we can learn from it.

First of all, at Te Aroha, once the rain came the track got to genuine Slow by the start of race one so made things tricky.

Race 2 A'Larose dropped well back in class and had won well on debut. Dam was a very good wet track galloper. Had early speed to lead them and did. Rated 99 and 98 in the Formpro Ratings at her two starts, 2 lengths clear of the next best.

Race 5: Ten Belles had the second best Formpro Ratings on a Slow to Heavy track and won a slow track here last May.

Race 6: Neo was just beaten by Kelly O'Reilly fresh up and she won earlier in the day and came out of strong form races at his previous three starts.

Race 7 Duke Of York dropped back from R85 class at Trentham to R75 and had the best Formpro Rating over the distance and since May 2010. Ran second to Veldt two starts back and he won next up as did the third horse, Skysoblue.

Race 8 Xanadu may have been a bit fresh last start and is best ridden off the pace. Rated equal best after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings.

Race 9 Shuka close second to Skysoblue last start at second go at a middle distance so would have been peaking for this.

Race 10 Maximum Height dropped back from a stronger field for this. Actually rated a career best Formpro Rating of 112 last start. Had won on the course over this distance on a Slow track back in October.

So a common thread is the form being franked by winners around previous form and the Formpro Ratings showing it was capable of winning. Of course, you could have applied the same good form factors to other horses on the day. But our job is to sort which ones are the best placed to win. A horse may have finished a close second last start and the winner and third horse may have won since, but if that horse is starting on a track condition that he is unproven on or over a distance that has not suited before, then he goes down in his rated chance. Let's look at the first race at Taranaki tomorrow. Silk Chardonnay, last start, ran home strongly from well back for second at Matamata. The winner, Madly Bentley, dead heated for first next up and the third horse, Assertive, which was outfinished by Silk Chardonnay, won next up. She rates third equal after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings and will be fitter after that last start run. The negative is she gets back but they tend to get going around 600m out and if Phillip Turner can get a nice track into it, she has to be a realistic chance with that strong formline from last start with the lightest weight in the race.