Let's take a look at the big race on Saturday, the Hawkes Bay Cup. The track is currently a Dead 6 and with showers about through to Saturday, is unlikely to improve too much. Our track man will be walking it on Friday though, so we will have a better idea then.

If Skysoblue starts, ( they may scratch if it gets too wet ) she is going to be run at an even to Good tempo suiting runners with cosy runs or off the pace. With the sixteen horse field there is very likely to be a three wide train as there was in last year's cup won by Flemington, who got the box seat and just won.

He rated 112.8 when winning that on the minimum of 53kgs. In 2011, Don Domingo rated 113 when also carrying the minimum. In 2010, Boundless won it rating 116 carrying 4.5kgs over the minimum. This year's cup is average strength and any horse weighted on the minimum of 53kgs is going to need to rate 113 to win this. Only five horses have done that since April 2010: Sum Up and Better Together on 115, and El Soldado, Flemington and Guns At Five on 113. But when you take into account the weight they are carrying, Sum Up needs to rate 117 to win with 59kgs, Better Together and El Soldado 115, Flemington 114, and Guns At Five 117. With one rating point equalling 1 length, Sum Up needs to improve 4 lengths on his last run which is hard to see third up but can place. Better Together has been up a while and hard to see her finding an 8 length improvement on her last start rating of 107 and she hasn't won this campaign. Flemington just isn't in the form he won in last year.

El Soldado ran a solid second in the Auckland Cup but hasn't raced for 45 days so hard to see him improving on his 110 last start rating. As mentioned earlier, the last two years winners have come from the minimum, and two years before that, All In Black 0.5kgs over the minimum. And it seems very likely that pattern will continue here. So which one down there looks as though he or she can improve a few lengths? Survived's last three ratings have been improving: 99-105 - 107. Can he improve 6 rating points to win this? His last start says he can. He came home in 34.48 seconds for his last 600m, the fastest of the day, at Awapuni to win. The Group 2 WFA race was run at a slightly faster tempo and the race time was only 0.26 seconds faster than Survived's race. That was his first run over ground and he was strong going to the line. So he should have natural improvement in him as well and he maps to get an ideal run. Two starts back he relished the Dead to Slow track at Rotorua so a similar track will hold no fears for him. Trainer John Bary is very pleased with his progress since then, so he looks the one the ones higher up in the handicap are going to have real trouble keeping out.

I'll be posting a full preview tomorrow by noon Friday on the site.

It was certainly a good day to sit on your hands with the swamp like conditions at Rotorua today. There was only one horse I had any confidence in, Rabiosa, but when his price kept drifting, the chances were the stable wasn't confident of him handling the track and that's what happened. For those that follow the Formpro greyhound ratings, they were on fire at Wanganui today. David wrote up the results for the day on the home page here. Three of the six head to head bets came in for an average result.

All good things come to an end. Black Caviar has retired and who can blame them. She did what no other horse has done in my lifetime. She could have gone on, but what did they have to prove. To go twenty five races unbeaten, is unlikely to be done again in the next fifty years, so we all saw something very special.

Its A Dundeel is going to race in the Queen Elizabeth and if Pierro starts, it will make for a race worth watching alright. It was interesting to hear James say he was more dour now, so dropping back to 2000m against Pierro moving up to 2000m from 1600m, could swing things the Ozzie's way.

No selections for Otago tomorrow. I don't cover South Island meetings as I just haven't got the time to review and preview them thoroughly. I will post selections for Friday by 8.45 a.m. and an update at noon with Auckland Trotting club selections and an early preview of some Saturday races.

Some days things just don't happen the way you want them to and today at Wanganui was one of those days. But we always have to be prepared to learn from days like that. The average dividend was $15 on the Dead 6 track. As mentioned in yesterday's article, it is a course that some horses just don't handle when its wet or relish it. So next time they have a meeting on a wet track here, we know to expect the unexpected and be very choosey with our bets. A key part of making money long term is being selective with your bets. Personally, I do most of my betting around horses that I have Good or Strong confidence about it. I indicate that at the start of the preview of all races. Strong being the most confident, when I think there is no danger to the selection. Then Good, if there is only one danger to the selection. Average is when I feel there are two or three dangers to the selection. Moderate is when there are at least three more runners that can win, and Low is best left to the Bookies. I also rate each selection with a Rated Price indicated with 'RP' before the price. This is not what I think the horse will start at, but what price I feel reflects its chances. For example, nearly all Good and Strong confidence selections are rated $3 or less. Rani Aurora I rated at $2.00 along with Good confidence on saturday. She was freely available at $2.80 which was good value. I may have none all week or up to ten for a week.

Tomorrow, we will probably have a heavy track to work the form out on. It is a track that favours swoopers once the inside part of the track is chewed up. I've had a few readers ask me about the head to head bets which are great when you are confident one horse can beat the other and the value is there, as it was on Monday at Avondale. There were none at Wanganui today. So tomorrow at Rotorua, I'll comment on each of the eight head to head bets on offer saying if they are worth taking or passing on. They can accumulate into a nice multi. Bookies usually post them by 10 a.m. It takes quite a while to go back through their replays and form etc, so I'll post them by 12.15 p.m.

A tricky day of betting at Avondale today with rain lurking but not unleashing. The track remained Dead and just as well as there would have been many scratchings otherwise. Bet of the day, Living The Dream, led all the way to win easily but I didn't agree the official time of 1.09.89. The horse mentioned in yesterday's Winning Pointers' was Darci's Gold which was going for three fresh up wins in a row. The trial told us she was ready and she was set up for the punt. The rain stayed away long enough for her to handle the ground and dropped from $5.50 to $3.40 on the tote late but paid around $4.50 with bookies, so it could well have been Australian money coming late.

Great to see Adam Scott win the Masters this morning with Steve Williams on the bag for his third individual Masters win. What an amazing tournament that is.

Tomorrow, at Wanganui, we have a Dead 6 track and rain forecast throughout the day. It is a track that tends to favour horses with a proven record there, especially when it gets to slow or heavy. So I asked the Formpro Ratings, using the Race Filter, to tell us which runners in the sixth race, the R75 event, that had the best ratings on a slow to heavy track there over the last year plus or minus 400 metres. On top is Gus with 103, then Mrs Mac on 99 then Ishdanzin on 96.8. So make sure you include them in your quaddies. I'll be posting a full preview of the meeting by 8.45 a.m. tomorrow morning.

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