Expert horse race selections and exclusive sectionals and reviews from New Zealand

Expert horse race selections and exclusive sectionals and reviews from New Zealand

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Expert horse race selections and exclusive sectionals and reviews

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No South Island meetings previewed now except for major meetings at Riccarton.


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Latest news

Sports Pools syndicate here

Avondale preview and update here

Waikato sectional review with many blackbookers here

Ruakaka sectionals here

The Money Shot nails three from three here

Best Bet and Value bet both win well at Hawera here

Value bet of the day, Montetra $7.90, wins well here

Rotorua sectional review here

$2733 Woodville quaddie struck here

Avondale review here

Nice Place 6 $156 ( 4x), quaddie and bet of the day returns for subscribers here

Wanganui sectional review here

Frederick William scores nicely as the the value bet of the day $6 here

Te Rapa sectional review here

Some excellent value collects at the Auckland trots here

$8,336 quaddie struck at Hastings here

IT'S A DUNDEEL - THE QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES DEFEAT AT $1.28 IN REVIEW here

Counties sectional review here

Te Awamutu sectional review here

$100,000 Terminating Pick 6 syndicate here

Matamata quaddie, and $2284 last treble at Hawera here

Free sectional reviews and comments  here

Two trifectas of $110 and $928 Plus a first Four of $1657Two trifectas of $110 and $928 Plus a first Four of $1657
 
'Form Race Factor ' new addition Print

With the Good and Dead tracks a thing of the past for the next few months, one of the strongest form factors we can use is the 'Form Race Factor'. I've recently mentioned how you can use the Formpro Ratings to see at a glance which races are developing into strong form races indicated by the small number beside each and every rating with the number of wins coming out of that race. For example, Heart Of Darkness in the eighth race at Te Rapa yesterday had a 2 beside her last start rating and on closer investigation, those winners were O'Fille and Testa Secret in the Group 3 Cuddle Stakes and she battled on okay for a 4.6 length ninth. This was obviously a drop back in class and with the 3kg claim, looked well placed and she was also the best Formpro rated runner after weight adjustments, so the $13.80 was excellent value.

In my Saturday reviews, as the better horses race then, I will start indicating horses to put in your Race Tracker, available on the TAB website, that are worth noting because of the good form of winners etc. For instance, at Awapuni yesterday, in race three, Maeve Davone won well. If we look back at her last race at Te Awamutu, we can see that she ran a strong closing fourth and the sixth and eighth horses have since won. But the third horse, Whatwasthat trailed and unwound strongly late and through the line was strong. So that indicates he will be one to watch out for next start. And it just so happens he is starting in the first race tomorrow at Tauranga and the 1600m will suit as will the 3kg allowance again. There are a couple of other handy horses there, but we now know that Whatwasthat has a very strong 'Form Race Factor' and everything points to a win third up from the strong Baker/Forsman.

 
The best value bet in New Zealand tomorrow Print

The track at Te Rapa, according to the nzracing site, is a Slow 7 as at 2.25 p.m. but a subscriber who lives next to it tells us that it has had steady rain since 3.00 p.m. and was heavy at about 5.30 p.m. With showers forecast tomorrow it is likely to be closer to Heavy than Slow. And with rain forecast at Awapuni, we will have to wait and see.

I have previewed a handful of races tomorrow and posted it here, but it looks to be a day of caution with the tricky tracks. The best value bet all day will be the turbo quaddie with $40,000 injected, so it is very likely to get to $120,000 or more. I have spent a lot of time analysing those races along with the Formpro ratings and will post my thoughts tomorrow morning by 8.30 a.m. You just need a couple of winners paying double figures to get an excellent return.

 
Backing multiple runners in a race Print

Some good feedback about the previews based on the Formpro Ratings. Yes, we have found the winner in both of the two races previewed at Ruakaka and Hawera, but don't expect them to win all the time. But I'd be surprised, over time, if we don't make a good long term profit with the right staking plan. As I mentioned yesterday, some professionals only back two or more horses in a race to ensure a profit. There are various ways to do that. Say you were confident Better Keeper would win today, but if something happened to her like being held up or just having an off day, you could have put enough on Mini Pearl to cover both win bets or if you felt both could win, back both to return the same amount no matter which one wins. It can take a while to work out how much you need to outlay but if you click here, you can download a free betting calculator from Practical Punting to help you.

One subscriber asked me how I work the ratings out. I take into account many factors like the class of the field, the time and tempo of the race, the form the main contenders are in, etc. But what I am trying to nail is a number I can give to the winner that reflects just how strong the win was, taking into account the weight it carried. I do that, knowing on occasions I will get it wrong sometimes, so I'm constantly reviewing the ratings to ensure I did not rate a race too low or too high. Then the horses that finish behind the winner, are rated depending on how far behind and how much weight they carried compared to the winner. The hardest thing to do in racing is to nail the class of every horse, but the Formpro Ratings go a long way towards helping you do that. In fact, I would go as far to say that if you can correctly assess the class of every horse, you would have your own eftpos machine.

In the Bonus quaddie tonight, Raw Energy looks an obvious anchor in the first leg with his best rated box speed and fast ratings. In the second leg, the box speed indicates anything can lead, so take the 4 'Best' rated dogs, 1-2-3-8 and the fastest dog out -9. In the third, take the best four again, 1-3-7-8, and the same in the last, 1-5-6-7.

I've had a few queries about running a Sports Pool syndicate. We aren't this week but may do next week if the Money Shot feels it is worth a really good go.

Just a reminder to the members in the Terminating Pick 6 syndicate, we still have over $4,000 in the kitty for when the right one comes along, probably in June.

No selections for Winton tomorrow, but I will be posting an early preview of any Saturday bets worth having by noon.

 
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