Expert horse race selections and exclusive sectionals and reviews from New Zealand

Expert horse race selections and exclusive sectionals and reviews from New Zealand

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Expert horse race selections and exclusive sectionals and reviews

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Walshy edges closer to the record Print

davidwtrickjah

David Walsh, on Trickjah, makes it two wins at Waterlea 

Great to see Walshy nail a couple of winners with copybook rides at Blenheim today. In Race 4, he gave Redesdale every chance in the trail and popped out of the slipstream at the right time and it was never in doubt - $19. Trickjah at $18 was rated nicely in front and angled out to the best part of the ground by this time of day, which was the difference between first and second. It was also the best rated horse on a slow to heavy track. He won't be riding at Awapuni tomorrow, but will be on three runners at Trentham, then back to Blenheim on Sunday. He needs three more wins to break Lance O'Sullivan's record, so keep an eye on him. I'll continue previewing his rides until he does get it.

One race I am looking forward to watching on Saturday is the Cambridge Jockey Club's Breeders Stakes, a group 3 race for three year olds with set weights and penalties over 1200 metres. When you start glancing down the field you get hit by some very smart horses: The Bold One, a very impressive winner at Trentham on debut, then Ruud Awakening and Angelica Hall. Then a horse like Allez Eagle is the first emergency! Miss Foxwood, which ran second to Beauty's Beast last start, will be fitter for this. Then the winner may not come from those mentioned! Angelica Hall, back to 1200m with a stronger tempo likely, should get her chance to redeem herself. I wouldn't be surprised if we look back at this field next year and find it chock full of winners. From last year's race, seven of the fourteen runners have gone on to win, including Little Wonder ( 1st), Waterford (4th), and Silverdale ( 5th).

The Travis Stakes for fillies and mares over 2000m looks just as open. Soriano likes to space her wins well apart so at $4.20 from a wide draw, is no value. And Zurella falls into the same category. So maybe there is room for an upset. The track should come back from its current Dead 6 to close to perfect with the good weather forecast.

 
Latest news

ANZAC day selections here

Hastings sectionals here

Tauranga sectionals here

Formpro Bank bets show a 27.44 unit net profit here

Rotorua sectional review here

Bets of the day well backed at Rotorua and only Bank bet gets up in Sydney   here

Pukekohe sectionals here

Formpro Bank bets results update here

$1155 quaddie struck and nice Bank bets profit here

Overtheriver, $6, bolts in as value bet of the day here

Hastings sectionals here

Te Aroha sectionals here

Bets of the Day, Alice Webb Ellis $6 and Viadana $4, make a nice dent in the bookies bags here

Osmunda, bet of the day, gets thumped here

Formpro Ratings users please ensure the address is www.formproratings.co.nz to get the ratings ( not the address with virtual punter in it. )

Whanganui sectionals here

Awapuni sectionals here

Ellerslie sectionals here

 Wanganui $1923 quaddie struck here

 

 

 

 


 

 

Two trifectas of $110 and $928 Plus a first Four of $1657Two trifectas of $110 and $928 Plus a first Four of $1657
 
David Walsh has seven handy rides today Print

David Walsh needs 5 more wins to set the record for the most number of New Zealand wins. He has seven rides today and could knock one more off that tally by the end of the day.

Race 1

11.Keepitasecret good run two back and had an off day last start. Can bounce back and a heavy track should be ok. Eachway chance.

Race 2

5.Glade Goes well fresh and has won on heavy tracks. Inside draw could be a plus or minus, but that's David's job to sort out. Good quinella chance with the favourite.

Race 3

6.Kiatere gets up to a more suitable distance and placed on a heavy track. Eachway at nice odds.

Race 4

6.Redesdale ran a fair debut and trialled ok. Place chance at odds.

Race 5

4.Perry Mason ran a close 4th on debut and won well second up on a Slow 8 track. Will be ready and a definite chance to solve this puzzle.

Race 6

1.Fragrant has the ability to win this and the wide draw may allow them to stay away from the inside which may be a no go zone by this time of day.

Race 8

11.Trickjah doesn't win too often but David turned a similar horse's form around a couple of weeks ago paying $30. He's in my quaddies.

 
A proud time and Bank bets Print

I was trying to nail why I felt so good about the racing this week. Then I realised it was the pride I felt in seeing our best horses win on one of Australia's biggest racing stages. It's A Dundeel and James McDonald peaked on exactly the right day with a superb training display from Murray Baker. I was watching it with another punter and we both remarked at the same time just how ready he looked to win, despite doing summersaults in his stall! That inside draw was taken full advantage of by James and got the horse relaxed and with it being turned into a true staying and fitness test with Carlton House ticking along in front, so he was always going to be very hard to beat. Then Sacred Falls closed hard for second, leaving the rest to it.

Earlier in the day, Beauty's Beast was ridden a treat in front and with his ability to relax now, he was able to sustain that very good sprint of his. Well done to David Greene for getting it right because it is so easy to get it wrong.

Then Bounding got a few of us excited when she looked to have it until the smart Sidestep spouted wings. That wide draw just made her use a bit more petrol and left her vulnerable late.

Rising Romance was a terrific winner of the Oaks and the ride was the difference between her winning and Lucia Valentina getting the job done. Why you would not take some advantage of an inside draw in a million dollar race will remain a mystery for years. It just goes to show how unlucky Rising Romance was in the Derby when held up in traffic and flying home.

With the wet tracks upon us now, we will need to pick and choose where we place our hard earned. For example, today at Te Aroha on what was always going to be a sticky track, you just couldn't punt with confidence, hence no bets of the day. The best result was in the seventh race where I identified two of the favoured runners, Grant's Girl and Petrify as beatable. Four of the five horses recommended filled the $2980 First Four divvy.

The Bank Bets have accumulated a nice profit of almost 30 units and about 12% profit on turnover.

( POT). I said I would trial these from February 13th to the end of this month. They have proved very popular so I will keep them going. I've had many ideas and suggestions about them which has been great. How you back the selections for them is, of course, entirely up to you. One subscriber is using a set amount put aside each week and using up to 90 % of it for the Bank bets and then depositing all returns and any un-bet money into a separate Savings account and just letting it accumulate. He didn't start that until near the end of March and has made almost 50 units profit so that was good timing.

Many who have been following this site for a few years, will know I am always keen to see the horses I back, before the start, as often it can save you money, or give you confidence or even more confidence, which can affect the size of your bet. So there will be occasions, where I will warn subscribers that there is a horse that is a possible Bank Bet in the morning, but won't post the horse and/or the recommended bet, until I can see the horse, and its main rivals before the start. For example, last Saturday, I was confident It's A Dundeel was ready to win, and was only concerned about Carlton House and Silent Achiever. But once I saw how the track was playing and how supremely fit It's A Dundeel looked, he looked a guilt edged bet and was a very nice price around $4. Bounding was another I wanted to see. I would have recommended her each way after they ran 1.10.83 in the previous 2yo race which indicated the track was good enough for her. She ran second and paid around $1.70 so no great damage would have been done. But one horse I had sorted out but not recommended in my selections was Cosmic Endeavour in the last race. I knew she was a very good chance the way the race mapped with not a lot of pace but really wanted to see if the track was suitable for her and money would come for her late, and it did - from $14 into $9 late. She led and got a soft lead, bolted in and ended up paying $7.90 on the tote! So she is a prime example of how waiting till we have all the information to make an informed decision, can make a significant difference. Sometimes, I will recommend to just watch the selection and it romps home. You will call me an expletive or three for jumping ship, but I will have my reasons and long term, I'm confident we can grind out a tidy profit.

The problem is, obviously some of you won't be able to sit on your computer or phone and see any recommended Bank bet until a couple of minutes before the start. But I'm afraid there is no getting around it. If he had not looked as good, and/or the inside few metres had been off, then I wouldn't have recommended It's A Dundeel as a Bank bet. But I may post the selection in the morning, and mention that it may or may not be a Bank bet close to race time. Then if you aren't able to logon, you can then use your own judgement whether to back it or not in the morning.

If the price on offer from the bookies is definite value and I feel it is worth the risk of taking the early odds without waiting, then I may recommend the Bank bet earlier. But if I feel it is worth the risk of maybe losing 10 or 20% of value, especially if I'm not sure about the track or horse etc, then I will say that I will be posting my recommendation one or two minutes before the start. If we pull out and it misses, then that

When you are punting to make money long term, you need every edge you can get, and this is an edge! Many punters will say, I couldn't give a hoot about what they look like or worry about any stupid track bias. That's fine, that's their choice, but when I'm putting my reputation and money on the line, why wouldn't you take advantage of it? It could easily translate into an extra 5% Profit on Turnover over a period of a year. If you have any questions please email me ( Neil Davis ) at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

 
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