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One of the keys to finding winners is learning to recognize races that are too open or just right for betting on. There would only be a maximum of ten races a week that are suitable for serious study and betting. Most punters think they can find the winner of most races. I spend most days analysing replays, times and sectionals and I’m pleased if I find 40% winners on top at a meeting. But if you can narrow the sixty or so races a week down to a handful of ideal races to bet on, you give yourself every chance of making a long term profit.
Since last Sunday January 15th there have been 81 races run and I have shown Good or Strong confidence in twelve of those races and eight of them won. Those are the races where I have made my money and will continue to make my money. I put a lot more time into analysing the replays of most horses in those races as well as the other form factors. The sectionals and race times are vital to that success rate. Most tipsters and punters have no idea how to interpret times and sectionals so either say they are unreliable or just can’t be bothered. But I can tell you that having most sectionals exclusively available to us is a key ingredient to our long term success. I was amazed that one tipster selected a horse on Saturday as a great bet and based on its last start sectional it had absolutely no chance of winning.
The Formpro Ratings have been another big aid in sorting out the form. If you go to the Formpro Ratings site here and login with: formpro and rainbow you can follow along with me analysing tomorrow’s Hastings form. The track is currently a Dead 4 and with good weather forecast should get back to a Good track.
Go to race 1. The first thing I do in a race is click on the most recent race column ( R1) which sorts out the last start performances in order of best to worst. The figures in red indicate the best rating in each column. I note the top four or five and also glance back through the last three starts to see if something else rated highly and then look at why it may have gone down in the ratings next start. In this race, Our Delight has the best last start and has made good jumps in her ratings with her three starts. But after you click on the Adj column on the far right, which adjusts their ratings after their weight carried over the lightest weighted runner is taken into account, it shows that it is a very even race. The top 5 rate either 94 or 95 so I’ll pass on this race.
In race 2 there is a lack of recent form so unless something stands out in the ratings I pass on races like these. You are far better off spending the five or ten dollars on a race where you can be confident of your selection based on reliable information.
Race 3 is similar to race 2 with below average ratings. A good maiden rating is around 94 or more and the highest here is 92 after adjustments so pass.
Race 4 is full of horses that have become dizzy from going round too often in maiden races and there is nothing that stands out as an up and comer.
Race 5 After sorting out the best recent runs, San Pedro and One Nought Short are equal top rated on 95 and are both looking set to peak now. San Pedro has 59 kgs which is a big ask with the new handicapping system and will probably go out favourite, so is probably going to be no value. But when we click on the Adjusted weights column ( Adj ) we see that Crixus rates 3 points clear of anything else. That was when he ran a close second to Seducer at Otaki. Last start he was rushed out early on a solid pace then gradually drifted back to 8th mid race then got closer on the turn but that early work set it up for the swoopers. The side winkers go on and Lisa Allpress does as well. He hasn’t raced over a middle distance before which is a negative but has the early pace to get all favours and relaxes well, so looks a solid eachway chanceon his preferred Good track. I’ve had a look at the other main dangers in the race and 14. Misty Heights is well weighted and ran on strongly last start at her first run over a distance. She also rates second after adjustments.
On to Race 6. When we click on the R1 column we see that Celebration has the best recent rating of 103 which matched her previous rating. They were both in stronger Open handicap races and she drops back to R75 class here. She also has the best rating on the track of 105 and Lisa Allpress jumps on. She maps to settle in the 1x1 and from there looks very hard to beat.
Race 7. The adjusted columns shows that this is a leg to go wide in for the quaddie. I’ll be spending more time going through replays for subscribers for this leg to work it out.
Race 8 This also looks an open affair with 6 horses rating from 91 to 93 after adjustments so I will need to spend more time going through replays to sort this one out as well.
So in a low key meeting, Celebration looks the best placed horse and Crixus a good eachway chance. I will post a full preview for subscribers by 8.40 a.m. tomorrow morning. Remember, if you like to dabble on the greyhounds the ratings can be a big help in finding those value runners as well. At Otgao today, Vitalise $9 had the best recent rating, as did Ritza Night $3, Let’s Debate second highest last rating $11, Homebush Helen, 2nd highest best rating $18, and Da Boss best last start rating $4. |
