I was trying to nail why I felt so good about the racing this week. Then I realised it was the pride I felt in seeing our best horses win on one of Australia's biggest racing stages. It's A Dundeel and James McDonald peaked on exactly the right day with a superb training display from Murray Baker. I was watching it with another punter and we both remarked at the same time just how ready he looked to win, despite doing summersaults in his stall! That inside draw was taken full advantage of by James and got the horse relaxed and with it being turned into a true staying and fitness test with Carlton House ticking along in front, so he was always going to be very hard to beat. Then Sacred Falls closed hard for second, leaving the rest to it.
Earlier in the day, Beauty's Beast was ridden a treat in front and with his ability to relax now, he was able to sustain that very good sprint of his. Well done to David Greene for getting it right because it is so easy to get it wrong.
Then Bounding got a few of us excited when she looked to have it until the smart Sidestep spouted wings. That wide draw just made her use a bit more petrol and left her vulnerable late.
Rising Romance was a terrific winner of the Oaks and the ride was the difference between her winning and Lucia Valentina getting the job done. Why you would not take some advantage of an inside draw in a million dollar race will remain a mystery for years. It just goes to show how unlucky Rising Romance was in the Derby when held up in traffic and flying home.
With the wet tracks upon us now, we will need to pick and choose where we place our hard earned. For example, today at Te Aroha on what was always going to be a sticky track, you just couldn't punt with confidence, hence no bets of the day. The best result was in the seventh race where I identified two of the favoured runners, Grant's Girl and Petrify as beatable. Four of the five horses recommended filled the $2980 First Four divvy.
The Bank Bets have accumulated a nice profit of almost 30 units and about 12% profit on turnover.
( POT). I said I would trial these from February 13th to the end of this month. They have proved very popular so I will keep them going. I've had many ideas and suggestions about them which has been great. How you back the selections for them is, of course, entirely up to you. One subscriber is using a set amount put aside each week and using up to 90 % of it for the Bank bets and then depositing all returns and any un-bet money into a separate Savings account and just letting it accumulate. He didn't start that until near the end of March and has made almost 50 units profit so that was good timing.
Many who have been following this site for a few years, will know I am always keen to see the horses I back, before the start, as often it can save you money, or give you confidence or even more confidence, which can affect the size of your bet. So there will be occasions, where I will warn subscribers that there is a horse that is a possible Bank Bet in the morning, but won't post the horse and/or the recommended bet, until I can see the horse, and its main rivals before the start. For example, last Saturday, I was confident It's A Dundeel was ready to win, and was only concerned about Carlton House and Silent Achiever. But once I saw how the track was playing and how supremely fit It's A Dundeel looked, he looked a guilt edged bet and was a very nice price around $4. Bounding was another I wanted to see. I would have recommended her each way after they ran 1.10.83 in the previous 2yo race which indicated the track was good enough for her. She ran second and paid around $1.70 so no great damage would have been done. But one horse I had sorted out but not recommended in my selections was Cosmic Endeavour in the last race. I knew she was a very good chance the way the race mapped with not a lot of pace but really wanted to see if the track was suitable for her and money would come for her late, and it did - from $14 into $9 late. She led and got a soft lead, bolted in and ended up paying $7.90 on the tote! So she is a prime example of how waiting till we have all the information to make an informed decision, can make a significant difference. Sometimes, I will recommend to just watch the selection and it romps home. You will call me an expletive or three for jumping ship, but I will have my reasons and long term, I'm confident we can grind out a tidy profit.
The problem is, obviously some of you won't be able to sit on your computer or phone and see any recommended Bank bet until a couple of minutes before the start. But I'm afraid there is no getting around it. If he had not looked as good, and/or the inside few metres had been off, then I wouldn't have recommended It's A Dundeel as a Bank bet. But I may post the selection in the morning, and mention that it may or may not be a Bank bet close to race time. Then if you aren't able to logon, you can then use your own judgement whether to back it or not in the morning.
If the price on offer from the bookies is definite value and I feel it is worth the risk of taking the early odds without waiting, then I may recommend the Bank bet earlier. But if I feel it is worth the risk of maybe losing 10 or 20% of value, especially if I'm not sure about the track or horse etc, then I will say that I will be posting my recommendation one or two minutes before the start. If we pull out and it misses, then that
When you are punting to make money long term, you need every edge you can get, and this is an edge! Many punters will say, I couldn't give a hoot about what they look like or worry about any stupid track bias. That's fine, that's their choice, but when I'm putting my reputation and money on the line, why wouldn't you take advantage of it? It could easily translate into an extra 5% Profit on Turnover over a period of a year. If you have any questions please email me ( Neil Davis ) at